Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had far-reaching repercussions on the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe, reshaping the preferences of political elites and voters alike. The Kremlin’s initial objective was to bolster its international influence through this conflict, but instead, it found itself alienating even some of its long-standing Eastern European allies.
In Ukraine, support for EU and NATO membership, as well as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, has remained remarkably high, each garnering roughly 90% approval. The significant minority that once favoured closer ties with Russia in the early 2010s has now all but disappeared.
However, Russia’s loss extends beyond Ukraine’s borders. For years, Russia served as a protective power for Armenia, which constantly faces hostilities from Azerbaijan’s authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev. But as Russia directed its focus and resources towards Ukraine, it largely abandoned Armenia amidst Aliyev’s recent military challenges. Consequently, the democratically elected Armenian government has turned to Western nations, engaging in recent diplomatic efforts with France and even traditional adversary Türkiye. Incumbent Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has made groundbreaking statements, admitting the mistake of relying solely on Russia for security guarantees, refusing to see Armenia as an ally in Russia’s conflict with Ukraine, and considering withdrawal from the Collective Security Treaty Organization military alliance with Russia.
In Georgia, the enthusiasm for Western integration has remained steadfast for decades, with approximately 90% of decided voters favouring EU accession in recent polls. This commitment to Western integration persists, despite Georgia’s political elite adopting a somewhat less confrontational stance towards the Kremlin after the Ukraine invasion. While Georgia has diplomatically condemned Russia, its ruling party has refrained from joining Western sanctions, leading to conflicts with pro-EU President Salome Zourabichvili. It’s worth noting that Russia’s occupation of Georgia’s South Ossetia region in 2008 remains a significant point of contention.
Belarus, under the rule of dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka, has historically maintained a conditional alliance with the Kremlin. Lukashenka, known for not picking sides, cooperated with both the EU and Russia when it served his interests during the 2010s. Following the mass protests in Belarus in 2020, the EU imposed sanctions on Lukashenka’s regime. Weakened and desperate to quell popular unrest and maintain power, Lukashenka was compelled to turn solely to Moscow. The Kremlin seized this involuntary dependence and has used Belarus as a military outpost. Public sentiment, as indicated by polls and the “rail war,” suggests that this move has further fueled dissatisfaction with Lukashenka’s regime, thereby weakening one of the Kremlin’s last remaining allies in the region in the long run.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU leaders have reprioritized their enlargement strategy, fearing that other global powers might expand their influence in Southeastern Europe. Following years of stagnation, the EU initiated long-awaited accession negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia in 2022. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Moldova, where the Kremlin had been supporting anti-EU forces, received candidacy status, the precursor to accession negotiations. Kosovo also submitted its application for membership in December 2022. Additionally, Serbia, historically aligned with Russia, reportedly approved weapon deliveries to Ukraine. In summary, Russia’s aggressive actions have rekindled the EU integration aspirations of Balkan nations.
Meanwhile, despite the circus of public enthusiasm funded by the government, public opinion in Russia is difficult to gauge, as I explained in a recent blog post.
Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, mounting evidence suggests that the Kremlin has lost the battle for the hearts and minds of both voters and political elites in Eastern Europe. Geopolitically, the invasion has reinvigorated desires for European integration on both sides of the EU’s Eastern border.
Photo by Elena Mozhvilo on Unsplash
